Ernie Tedeschi

2 items

Wall Street Journal 2026-05-09-1

AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy

The Mag-7 aren't leading the economy; they're substituting for it. Strip out tech equipment, software, and data-center construction, and Q1 GDP growth was effectively flat — Tedeschi's import-netting cuts AI's headline contribution from 1.7pp to 0.4pp, with the remainder leaking to Taiwan and Korea. That makes the Fed's reaction function structurally late: the number it's reading is real, but what it's measuring isn't.

Silicon Continent 2026-04-24-2

The task is not the job: A supply-side answer to Amodei and Imas

Frey-Osborne (2013) gave accountants a 94% probability of automation. Thirteen years later, BLS counts 1.6 million employed, $81,680 median pay, and projects 5% growth through 2034. Bookkeeping clerks, meanwhile, are projected down 6%. Same technology, opposite outcomes, because one is a weak bundle and the other is a strong bundle. Garicano's framing is the sharpest pushback yet to the Amodei/Suleyman displacement narrative: labor markets price jobs, not tasks, and the three traits that make a bundle strong (unpredictable demand, production spillovers, the measurement problem of who gets blamed when output fails) are exactly the traits AI does not resolve. The real risk isn't mass white-collar unemployment. It's hollowed-out junior pipelines feeding senior layers that won't be there in ten years.